Democrats have jumped out to a rare 834-vote lead over Republicans in Kaufman County Precinct 2 early voting through Tuesday. With GOP incumbents Skeet Phillips and Judge Amy Tarno both facing Democratic challengers, Republicans risk losing both local seats unless the more than 2,000 regular GOP voters who haven't cast a ballot yet turn out before polls close on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
FORNEY, TX: For the first time in recent memory, Democratic voters are outvoting Republicans in Kaufman County Precinct 2, which covers the Forney area and a small part of Heath.
An exclusive analysis of county early voting rosters through this Tuesday, Oct. 27, shows that 2,381 voters from the March Democratic primary have already cast their ballots in the current election. Meanwhile, only 1,547 March Republican primary voters have turned out. That puts local Republicans 834 votes behind heading into the final days of the election.
Looking at overall primary voter history through Tuesday, 67 percent of Precinct 2 Democratic primary voters have already gone to the polls, compared to just 57 percent of Republican primary voters.
For years, Precinct 2 was considered safe Republican territory, where local GOP officials frequently ran unopposed. However, recent voting trends show that the margin in the area has grown much tighter. In the 2024 primary, Precinct 2 voters selected Republican ballots over Democratic ones by a margin of 3,195 to 1,104. By the March 2026 primary, those numbers flipped completely, with 3,399 voters choosing the Democratic ballot compared to 2,344 choosing the Republican ballot.
General election numbers tell a similar story of a shrinking Republican advantage. Down-ballot races in Precinct 2 tightened from roughly a 59-to-41 split in 2022 to a 56-to-44 margin in 2024. At the neighborhood level in November 2024, Donald Trump carried Voting Precinct 7 by only 38 votes and Voting Precinct 13 by just 62 votes, while Voting Precinct 14 went to the Democrats. Furthermore, an October poll from the University of Houston Hobby School puts the statewide U.S. Senate race within two points, which is helping drive strong Democratic turnout down the ballot.
This turnout shift has major implications for two local races in Precinct 2. Longtime Republican County Commissioner Skeet Phillips faces a challenge from Democrat Shree Henderson, and Republican Justice of the Peace Amy Tarno runs against Democrat Marcus Henderson. Both Phillips and Tarno ran unopposed in 2022. With both incumbents facing challengers this year while Democrats build an early voting lead, the outcome of both local offices will come down to which party shows up over the next few days.
Despite the 834-vote deficit recorded through Tuesday, the data shows that Republicans still have the numbers to overtake the lead if their regular voters turn out. As of Tuesday night, 2,039 Republican primary voters in Precinct 2 had not yet cast a ballot, compared with 1,411 Democratic primary voters who had not yet voted. That gives Republicans a 628-vote advantage among remaining primary voters. Nearly all of those 2,039 unvoted Republicans, 1,993 in total, cast a ballot in the November 2024 election, proving they are active local voters who simply had not made it to the polls as of Tuesday.
A breakdown of the county roster through Tuesday shows exactly where those remaining Republican primary voters live across the area. Voting Precinct 27 has the largest group with 447 unvoted Republicans, followed by Precinct 7 with 384, and Precinct 13 with 269. Precinct 14 has 227 remaining Republican voters, Precinct 32 has 224, Precinct 36 has 214, Precinct 11 has 190, and Precinct 25 has 84.
With the local Precinct 2 races hanging in the balance, residents have three days of voting left to cast their ballots. Early voting continues today and wraps up tomorrow, Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voters can find polling locations and schedules online at kaufmancounty.net/237/Elections.
